How Safe Is
Powered Paragliding (PPG) in the U.S.? (PPG Bible &
USPPA.Org)
Numerical Analysis is tough but I suspect that we
can get within an order of magnitude. Yes, yes, it's
as safe as you make it but lets take an objective
look. If you fly a powered paraglider, what are the
chances you'll die doing it? I don't address the
much greater risk of injury because data is even
sketchier. Of course you can improve your
chances—dramatically it turns out—but I'll
approximate the overall odds.
Lets start with the year 2007 estimate of about
3000 active pilots (those who fly 5+ times per
year—see sidebar) in the U.S. We're averaging 1
fatality every 8 months. So we can say there are
about 1.5 fatalities per 3000 participants per year
which is 0.5 per 1000 participants. I use the per
participant numbers because flight hour numbers are
even harder to estimate. The comparisons below
assume that average participants engage in the
respective activity about the same amount per year.
Compared to motorcycle riding. In 2003 the
National Center for Statistics and Analysis reported
about 0.7 fatalities per 1000 registered
motorcycles. I'm assuming that anyone bothering to
register their bike is probably active. Some bikers
ride all the time and others just keep them
registered with very occasional use. Same with
PPGers although the avid riders take their bikes to
work every day—PPGers can't do that. So, although it
appears that PPG is about 30% safer than motorcycle
riding, the number may easily be skewed more than
others.
Compared to paragliding. The U.S. Hang
Gliding and Paragliding Association (USHPA) has
about 10,000 members of which approximately 4500 are
paraglider pilots. To be conservative, I'm assuming
all are active (at least 5 flights per year). Over
the past 5 years they have experienced about 3
fatalities per year. That's about 0.7 fatalities per
1000 participants—almost identical to motorcycle
riders which means that paragliding is about 30%
more dangerous than powered paragliding. Given that
its entirely possible that paraglider pilots have
even fewer yearly flights (they are more weather
dependant) than paramotor pilots, paragliding could
easily be far more dangerous than this suggests.
Compared to driving. Unfortunately,
driving to the field is much safer than
paramotoring. The NTHSA report used above (to
compare motorcycle riding) finds that driving is 16
times safer than motorcycle riding so we can infer
that paramotoring, which is 30% safer than
motorcycle riding, is about 12 times more dangerous
than driving.
Compared to flying light airplanes.
According to Flying Magazine, a light airplane pilot
has 10 times more likelihood of dying on a personal
flight than on a drive—about the same risk as
paramotoring.
Compared to flying light helicopters. Yes,
this is a ridiculous comparison but, since I fly a
helicopter, wanted to quell the common accusation
that they are highly risky. Helicopters can
land safely after an engine failure and, in fact,
have a nearly identical risk of fatality, per hour,
as light airplanes. That means helicopter flying is
about as risky as flying paramotors.
Compared to Sky Diving. Not surprisingly,
sky diving is incredibly dangerous! It's a skydiver
myth that flying up in the airplane is more
dangerous than the jump out. According to the U.S.
Parachute association (USPA), a sky diver is 4 times
more likely to die on the jump out than the flight
up. That means that sky diving is about 4 times more
dangerous than powered paragliding. 4 paramotor
flights is the same death risk as one skydive. That
is, in fact, how I decided to go skydiving—I decided
the fun factor would equate to 4 paramotor flights.
Risk and reward.
But I Don't Do Risky Things, Am I Safe?
Once you've been trained and have achieved
approximately PPG2 skills, the risk drops
dramatically. Then, if you start exploring steeper
maneuvers, flying low or accepting stronger weather
conditions and tighter sites, the risk goes back up
just as dramatically. Avoiding those things keeps
your risk low.
This isn't intended to be a preachy "don't do
such-and-such" but rather a heads up on what the
risks are. Hey, we accept x amount of risk just by
strapping one of these things on.
The motorcycle rider can do only so much because
he's dependent on others. Multi-vehicle crashes
produce nearly half of all the motorcycle deaths. If
we die, it's probably our own doing.
Most fatal PPG accidents have been related to
(remember, these are for fatal accidents):
1. Training. Sorry to say but this is a
dangerous phase. Make sure your instructor goes
through the USPPA syllabus methodically, using a
simulator and rehearsing reaction to his
instructions. THIS IS CRITICAL! If you've not flown,
it must be automatic how you're going to react. Just
being told won't cut it. You must rehearse! The more
realistic the rehearsal, the more it benefits.
Get a tandem or do hill flying before going aloft
alone. Your life depends on it. A flight can go from
fun to fatal in a matter of seconds with
inappropriate control inputs. Towing is another way
to get a flight before soloing with the motor but
that has it's own risk. One student has died during
a towing accident—treat it with great respect.
2. Water. Never, ever accept any situation
where you could end up in water over 12" deep if the
engine quit. By avoiding the possibility of water
immersion you improve your odds by at least 25%.
3. Steep maneuvering. Wingovers are the
worst because they involve so much vertical and can
easily result in wing collapses. Steep spirals are
almost equally bad. They can be disorienting or
cause the pilot to lose consciousness.
4. Low flying. Wires pop up everywhere
and, if you fly low long enough, eventually you'll
run into one. When you do, there's roughly a
one-in-30 chance it will be fatal. Other risks of
low flying involve being confused by the "downwind
demon" illusion and whacking into something from
inappropriate reaction. That illusion only
causes problems when flying low.
5. Weather. Fly within the first 3 and
last 3 hours of daylight on days with benign
conditions and no major changes forecast. If it's
windy aloft, it will soon be gusty and turbulent at
the surface. Strong conditions have been a likely
factor in three fatalities that I know about and
overlap a couple others. Training in strong
conditions, for example, is a particularly bad idea.
Some pilots seek out thermals to stay aloft. I
have, too. This trades some safety for the fun of
soaring and a reserve parachute is essential. It's
not uncommon for paragliding competitions to see
several "saves" after pilots take large collapses in
strong thermal conditions. A reserve is no panacea,
though, top pilots have still died at the hands of
strong conditions even though they carried reserves.
6. Midair. If you fly with others you are
at risk. If you hit someone there is about a 1 in 10
chance it will be fatal. "look, shallow, up/down,
turn" means look in the turn direction, start
a shallow bank while looking up and down
in the turn direction and finally do your turn.
It doesn't take many pilots in the air, either. The
one fatality I'm aware of happened with 4 pilots
aloft and neither was in a landing pattern.
7. Equipment. Using someone else's
equipment adds risk. A 2007 fatality happened to a
pilot who took off in borrowed gear and got a brake
wrapped in the prop. This is more likely in low
hook-in machines but there likely other risks that
apply to all machines.
If you have a low hook-in machine, make sure the
cage has sufficient protection above and on top
(covering the prop, preferably) to prevent a brake
toggle from going in. It depends on the wing, too,
since they have different brake pulley positions and
some pilots have modified their brakes to hang below
the pulley. Otherwise it will be up to you to insure
it doesn't happen. I've seen or heard of brakes
going into the prop about 12 times and this is the
second fatality resulting from it.
8. Sites. Flying from tight or unknown
sites has proven risky. Scope them out, walk them
off, if necessary and don't accept places where you
don't know how much wind may be present if rotor
could be a factor.
9. Landable areas. Landing in or colliding
with a tree gives about a 1 in 50 chance of being
fatal. Always have a safe landing option. This is
painlessly easy to heed for most of us. In fact, if
you land into the wind, out of any significant rotor
and on dry surface, the chances of dying are very,
very small (I don't know of any). But don't land in
trees or water!
2007-08-15 Thanks to John Will
& Mike Nowland for input and correction on the
fatality rate computation and units. |
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